Views and Needs of Students, Parents, and Teachers on Closed-Circuit Television, Proximity Trackers, and Access Cards to Facilitate COVID-19 Contact Tracing in Schools: Thematic Analysis of Focus Groups and Interviews.

BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is considered a key measure in preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Governments around the world adopted contact tracing to limit the spread of COVID-19 in schools. Contact tracing tools utilizing digital technology (eg, GPS chips, Bluetooth radios) can increase efficiency compared to manual methods. However, these technologies can introduce certain privacy challenges in relation to retention, tracking, and the using and sharing of personal data, and little is known about their applicability in schools. OBJECTIVE: This is the second of two studies exploring the potential of digital tools and systems to help schools deal with the practical challenges of preventing and coping with an outbreak of COVID-19. The aim was to explore the views, needs, and concerns among secondary school stakeholders (parents, teachers, pupils) regarding the implementation of three digital tools for contact tracing: access cards, proximity tracking, and closed-circuit television (CCTV). METHODS: Focus groups and interviews were conducted with secondary school students, parents, and teachers. The topic guide was informed by the Unified Theory of Technology and Acceptance. Data-driven and theory-driven approaches were combined to identify themes and subthemes. RESULTS: We recruited 22 participants. Findings showed that there is no single solution that is suitable for all schools, with each technology option having advantages and limitations. Existing school infrastructure (eg, CCTV and smart/access cards technology) and the geography of each school would determine which tools would be optimal for a particular school. Concerns regarding the cost of installing and maintaining equipment were prominent among all groups. Parents and teachers worried about how the application of these solutions will affect students' right to privacy. Parents also appeared not to have adequate knowledge of the surveillance technologies already available in schools (eg, CCTV). Students, who were mostly aware of the presence of surveillance technologies, were less concerned about any potential threats to their privacy, while they wanted reassurances that any solutions would be used for their intended purposes. CONCLUSIONS: Findings revealed that there is not one tool that would be suitable for every school and the context will determine which tool would be appropriate. This study highlights important ethical issues such as privacy concerns, balancing invasions of privacy against potential benefits, transparency of communication around surveillance technology and data use, and processes of consent. These issues need to be carefully considered when implementing contact tracing technologies in school settings. Communication, transparency, and consent within the school community could lead to acceptance and engagement with the new tools.

Joint Analysis of the Epidemic Evolution and Human Mobility During the First Wave of COVID-19 in Spain: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: The initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic placed a tremendous strain on health care systems worldwide. To mitigate the spread of the virus, many countries implemented stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which significantly altered human behavior both before and after their enactment. Despite these efforts, a precise assessment of the impact and efficacy of these NPIs, as well as the extent of human behavioral changes, remained elusive. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of the initial wave of COVID-19 in Spain to better comprehend the influence of NPIs and their interaction with human behavior. Such investigations are vital for devising future mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19 and enhance epidemic preparedness more broadly. METHODS: We used a combination of national and regional retrospective analyses of pandemic incidence alongside large-scale mobility data to assess the impact and timing of government-implemented NPIs in combating COVID-19. Additionally, we compared these findings with a model-based inference of hospitalizations and fatalities. This model-based approach enabled us to construct counterfactual scenarios that gauged the consequences of delayed initiation of epidemic response measures. RESULTS: Our analysis demonstrated that the pre-national lockdown epidemic response, encompassing regional measures and heightened individual awareness, significantly contributed to reducing the disease burden in Spain. The mobility data indicated that people adjusted their behavior in response to the regional epidemiological situation before the nationwide lockdown was implemented. Counterfactual scenarios suggested that without this early epidemic response, there would have been an estimated 45,400 (95% CI 37,400-58,000) fatalities and 182,600 (95% CI 150,400-233,800) hospitalizations compared to the reported figures of 27,800 fatalities and 107,600 hospitalizations, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the significance of self-implemented prevention measures by the population and regional NPIs before the national lockdown in Spain. The study also emphasizes the necessity for prompt and precise data quantification prior to enacting enforced measures. This highlights the critical interplay between NPIs, epidemic progression, and human behavior. This interdependence presents a challenge in predicting the impact of NPIs before they are implemented.

Sociocultural and Behavioral Features of Anticipated COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in Papua New Guinea: Protocol for a Mixed Methods Study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 was characterized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a pandemic in 2020. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has remained on high alert ever since, and its National Control Centre continues to coordinate national preparedness and response measures, guided by its Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan for COVID-19. As part of the WHO and the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization's COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) program, PNG received several shipments of COVID-19 vaccine doses. A nationwide vaccine rollout for COVID-19 was initiated in PNG in May 2021. Despite the availability of vaccines and the capacity of health systems to vaccinate frontline workers and community members, including high-risk groups, there are still critical issues related to vaccine safety, confidence, and acceptance to ensure the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Evidence from studies on COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and demand in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) suggests that sociocultural characteristics of the community and the behaviors of different vaccine stakeholders, including vaccine recipients, vaccine providers, and policymakers, determine the effectiveness of vaccination interventions or strategies. OBJECTIVE: This study will examine sociocultural determinants of anticipated acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine in urban and rural areas of different regions in PNG and health care providers' views on vaccine acceptance. METHODS: The study design uses a mixed methods approach in PNG's coastal and highlands regions. The first research activity will use a qualitative methodology with an epistemological foundation based on constructivism. This design elicits and listens to community members' accounts of ways culture is a rich resource that provides meaning to the COVID-19 pandemic; the design also measures adherence to niupela pasin ("new normal" in Tok Pidgin) and vaccination acceptance. The second activity will be a cross-sectional survey to assess the distribution of features of vaccine acceptance, priorities, and practices. The third activity will be in-depth interviews of health care providers actively involved in either COVID-19 clinical management or public health-related pandemic control activities. RESULTS: The project proposal has been reviewed and approved by the Medical Research Advisory Committee of Papua New Guinea. Qualitative data collection started in December 2022, and the survey will begin in May 2023. The findings will be disseminated to the participating communities later this year, followed by publication. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed research on community views and experiences concerning sociocultural and behavioral features of acceptance of the vaccine will provide a better understanding of communication and education needs for vaccine action for COVID-19 control in PNG and other LMICs. The research also considers the influence of health care providers' and policy makers' roles in the awareness and use of the COVID-19 vaccine. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/44664.

Once upon a virus: Understanding the American public's COVID-19 vaccination uptake

Newly developed COVID-19 vaccines are a powerful instrument in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the American public's confidence in and willingness to receive the vaccines continue to define the outcome of this mass public health intervention. Employing the psychometric paradigm (Slovic, 1987), this dissertation examines how the American public weighs the risk from the COVID-19 vaccines against the risk from the COVID-19 pandemic, and how this risk comparison influences their likelihood to engage in risk mitigative behaviors. Three contextually-relevant individual characteristics that influence vaccine uptake are additionally examined. Two national surveys of American adults were conducted. Key findings are as follows: Study 1 establishes that the public perceive more dread risk toward the pandemic and more unknown risk toward the vaccines;this direct comparison influenced their subsequent risk mitigative actions. There were also differences between how vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals viewed the two risk events. Study 2 reveals that anticipated regret mediated the relationship between belief in misinformation about the two risk events and risk mitigative behaviors. Lastly, juxtaposing the quantitative findings, Study 3 presents qualitative inquiries to understand the social realities of the public as they live through an ongoing crisis. To better understand vaccine hesitancy, this dissertation gleans into the public's risk attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic and the COVID-19 vaccines that have been molded by a complex combination of information, relative risks and benefits tradeoffs, emotional responses, and individual characteristics. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Impact of public health and social measures on contact dynamics during a SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant outbreak in Quanzhou, China, March to April 2022.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of early implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs) on contact rates over time and explore contact behavior of asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases. METHODS: We used the largest contact tracing data in China thus far to estimate the mean contacts over time by age groups and contact settings. We used bootstrap with replacement to quantify the uncertainty of contact matrixes. The Pearson correlation was performed to demonstrate the number of contacts over time in relation to the evolution of restrictions. In addition, we analyzed the index cases with a high number of contacts and index cases that produced a high number of secondary cases. RESULTS: Rapidly adapted PHSMs can reduce the mean contact rates in public places while increasing the mean contact rates within households. The mean contact rates were 11.81 (95% confidence interval, 11.61-12.01) for asymptomatic (at the time of investigation) cases and 6.70 (95% confidence interval, 6.54-6.87) for symptomatic cases. The percentage of asymptomatic cases (at the time of investigation) meeting >50 close contacts make up more than 65% of the overall cases. The percentage of asymptomatic cases producing >10 secondary cases account for more than 80% of the overall cases. CONCLUSION: PHSMs may increase the contacts within the household, necessitating the need for pertinent prevention strategies at home. Asymptomatic cases can contribute significantly to Omicron transmission. By making asymptomatic people aware that they are already contagious, hence limiting their social contacts, it is possible to lower the transmission risk.

Embracing context: Lessons from designing a dialogue-based intervention to address vaccine hesitancy.

Dialogue with people who are vaccine hesitant has been recommended as a method to increase vaccination uptake. The process of cultivating dialogue is shaped by the context in which it occurs, yet the development of interventions addressing vaccine hesitancy with dialogue often overlooks the role of context and favors relatively fixed solutions. This reflexive paper shares three key lessons related to context for dialogue-based interventions. These lessons emerged during a participatory research project to develop a pilot intervention to create open dialogue among healthcare workers in Belgium about COVID-19 vaccination concerns. Through a mixed methods study consisting of in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and surveys, we engaged healthcare workers in the design, testing, and evaluation of a digital platform featuring text-based and video-based (face-to-face) interactions. The lessons are: (1) what dialogue means, entails, and requires can vary for a population and context, (2) inherent tension exists between helping participants voice (and overcome) their concerns and exposing them to others' ideas that may exacerbate those concerns, and (3) interactional exchanges (e.g., with peers or experts) that matter to participants may shape the dialogue in terms of its content and form. We suggest that having a discovery-orientation-meaning to work not only inductively and iteratively but also reflexively-is a necessary part of the development of dialogue-based interventions. Our case also sheds light on the influences between: dialogue topic/content, socio-political landscape, population, intervention aim, dialogue form, ethics, researcher position, and types of interactional exchanges.

Pediatric emergency healthcare utilization during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in Tokyo.

BACKGROUND: Various public health interventions have been implemented against the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. We investigated changes in pediatric emergency healthcare utilization during the current pandemic. METHODS: Based on data on outpatient healthcare visits to one pediatric emergency department in Tokyo, Japan, the descriptive, cross-sectional study compared the number of emergency department visits in 2020 to the number in the previous 3 years. Data were extracted from the electronic triage reporting system. The primary outcome was the number of emergency department visits. The characteristics of patients by age group were also investigated. RESULTS: A 40.6% reduction in pediatric emergency healthcare utilization was observed during the study period, with the greatest decrease occurring in the number of visits for fever. However, while the number of patients with a complaint with an exogenous cause decreased, the proportion of these patients increased. Although social activities in the greater community have now almost normalized, and only a slight increase in the number of patients with fever has been reported, the number of emergency department visits remains lower than in previous years as of this writing. CONCLUSIONS: Public health interventions led to a reduction in emergency department visits, thereby allowing time to redistribute health-care resources.

Modeling the spread dynamics of multiple-variant coronavirus disease under public health interventions: A general framework.

The COVID-19 pandemic was caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is a single-stranded positive-stranded RNA virus with a high multi-directional mutation rate. Many new variants even have an immune-evading property, which means that some individuals with antibodies against one variant can be reinfected by other variants. As a result, the realistic is still suffering from new waves of COVID-19 by its new variants. How to control the transmission or even eradicate the COVID-19 pandemic remains a critical issue for the whole world. This work presents an epidemiological framework for mimicking the multi-directional mutation process of SARS-CoV-2 and the epidemic spread of COVID-19 under realistic scenarios considering multiple variants. The proposed framework is used to evaluate single and combined public health interventions, which include non-pharmaceutical interventions, pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccine interventions under the existence of multi-directional mutations of SARS-CoV-2. The results suggest that several combined intervention strategies give optimal results and are feasible, requiring only moderate levels of individual interventions. Furthermore, the results indicate that even if the mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2 decreased 100 times, the pandemic would still not be eradicated without appropriate public health interventions.

Use of the Improvement Index to Evaluate Equitable COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Introduction: A social determinants of health index score or Vaccine Equity Metric was used to prioritize resources and address geographic disparities in California's vaccination coverage. We calculated the improvement index or percentage of the vaccination disparity gap closed to evaluate the impacts of this vaccination strategy in the San Francisco Bay Area during the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant surge. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study on San Francisco Bay Area ZIP codes during the Delta surge (July 6-October 5, 2021). Data came from the California Immunization Registry and the 2019 5-year American Community Survey. We used Spearman correlations to examine the relationships between Vaccine Equity Metric category and vaccine coverage and Kruskal-Wallis tests to compare vaccination improvement index across Vaccine Equity Metric categories. Results: We studied 248 ZIP codes in the San Francisco Bay Area. Those with the lowest resources (Vaccine Equity Metric Level 1) had the highest absolute increase in vaccination coverage (14.3 vs 5.4 percentage points in Vaccine Equity Metric Level 4), although a contribution was higher starting vaccination rates in Level 4 ZIP codes with the greatest resources. The ratio of vaccination coverage between the lowest- and highest-resourced ZIP codes increased from 0.79 to 0.9, suggesting reduced disparity. However, it is difficult to interpret given wide differences in n (Level 1 n=8 vs Level 4 n=151). In contrast, the vaccination improvement index accounts for each Vaccine Equity Metric category's baseline vaccination; all were statistically similar (grand mean=41.5%, p=0.367), implying comparable improvement across all ZIP codes. Conclusions: Using a Vaccine Equity Metric to identify and prioritize resources to vulnerable communities contributed to equitable vaccine allocation in the San Francisco Bay Area. Our study shows an example of the improvement index's advantages over conventional health equity metrics, such as absolute differences and relative effect measures, which can overestimate an intervention's impact.

Once upon a virus: Understanding the American public's COVID-19 vaccination uptake

Newly developed COVID-19 vaccines are a powerful instrument in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the American public's confidence in and willingness to receive the vaccines continue to define the outcome of this mass public health intervention. Employing the psychometric paradigm (Slovic, 1987), this dissertation examines how the American public weighs the risk from the COVID-19 vaccines against the risk from the COVID-19 pandemic, and how this risk comparison influences their likelihood to engage in risk mitigative behaviors. Three contextually-relevant individual characteristics that influence vaccine uptake are additionally examined. Two national surveys of American adults were conducted. Key findings are as follows: Study 1 establishes that the public perceive more dread risk toward the pandemic and more unknown risk toward the vaccines;this direct comparison influenced their subsequent risk mitigative actions. There were also differences between how vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals viewed the two risk events. Study 2 reveals that anticipated regret mediated the relationship between belief in misinformation about the two risk events and risk mitigative behaviors. Lastly, juxtaposing the quantitative findings, Study 3 presents qualitative inquiries to understand the social realities of the public as they live through an ongoing crisis. To better understand vaccine hesitancy, this dissertation gleans into the public's risk attitudes toward the COVID-19 pandemic and the COVID-19 vaccines that have been molded by a complex combination of information, relative risks and benefits tradeoffs, emotional responses, and individual characteristics. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved)

Challenges and Opportunities for Global Genomic Surveillance Strategies in the COVID-19 Era.

Global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance efforts have provided critical data on the ongoing evolution of the virus to inform best practices in clinical care and public health throughout the pandemic. Impactful genomic surveillance strategies generally follow a multi-disciplinary pipeline involving clinical sample collection, viral genotyping, metadata linkage, data reporting, and public health responses. Unfortunately, current limitations in each of these steps have compromised the overall effectiveness of these strategies. Biases from convenience-based sampling methods can obfuscate the true distribution of circulating variants. The lack of standardization in genotyping strategies and bioinformatic expertise can create bottlenecks in data processing and complicate interpretation. Limitations and inconsistencies in clinical and demographic data collection and sharing can slow the compilation and limit the utility of comprehensive datasets. This likewise can complicate data reporting, restricting the availability of timely data. Finally, gaps and delays in the implementation of genomic surveillance data in the public health sphere can prevent officials from formulating effective mitigation strategies to prevent outbreaks. In this review, we outline current SARS-CoV-2 global genomic surveillance methods and assess roadblocks at each step of the pipeline to identify potential solutions. Evaluating the current obstacles that impede effective surveillance can improve both global coordination efforts and pandemic preparedness for future outbreaks.

Evaluating COVID-19 Exposure Notification Effectiveness With SimAEN: A Simulation Tool Designed for Public Health Decision Making.

OBJECTIVES: Exposure notification (EN) supplements traditional contact tracing by using proximity sensors in smartphones to record close contact between persons. This ledger is used to alert persons of potential SARS-CoV-2 exposure, so they can quarantine until their infection status is determined. We describe a model that estimates the impact of EN implementation on reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and on the workload of public health officials, in combination with other key public health interventions such as traditional contact tracing, face mask wearing, and testing. METHODS: We created an agent-based model, Simulated Automated Exposure Notification (SimAEN), to explore the effectiveness of EN to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We varied selected simulation variables, such as population adoption of EN and EN detector sensitivity configurations, to illustrate the potential effects of EN. We executed 20 simulations with SimAEN for each scenario and derived results for each simulation. RESULTS: When more sensitive versus more specific EN configurations were compared, the effective reproductive number, RE, was minimally affected (a decrease <0.03). For scenarios with increasing levels of EN adoption, an increasing number of additional infected persons were identified through EN, and total infection counts in the simulated population decreased; RE values for this scenario decreased with increasing EN adoption (a decrease of 0.1 to 0.2 depending on the scenario). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates from SimAEN can help public health officials determine which levels of EN adoption in combination with other public health interventions can maximize prevention of COVID-19 while minimizing unnecessary quarantine in their jurisdiction.

Cost-effectiveness of Public Health Strategies on COVID-19 Control: A Systematic Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of the greatest public health challenges imposing significant economic and societal costs. A wide range of public health interventions (PHIs) have been implemented to control the virus, with many aggressive measures that led to economic downturn and social calamity. However, evidence concerning their impacts in terms of costs and benefits of the best buy strategy is limited. This systematic review aimed to provide a critical summary of full economic evaluations (EEs) to inform decisions concerning their adoptions. A systemic search in 7 relevant databases and other sources were conducted. Out of 11,584 and 11 records identified from databases and other sources, a total 31 full EEs focusing on PHIs were included. Majority of studies included were in good quality and from the US and upper-middle, and high-income countries whereas only 6 studies were from low and middle-income countries. Suppression/containment was the most deployed strategy (n=19), followed by screening/detection (n = 8), and protection (n = 4). Aggressive elimination strategy usually results in more lives or QALYs saved compared to mitigation strategies but at a very high cost. The trade-off between aggressive and loose suppressions depends on several factors including timing of implementation, duration, epidemiological characteristics of the virus, and the healthcare capacity. Tight and timely adoption of effective intervention at the early stage of pandemic is key in shrinking the number of cases. Using a combination approach is generally more cost-effective compared to a single intervention. Personal protective measure is highly cost-effective in protecting healthcare workers in a high prevalence scenario and when it is adopted together with social distancing strategy. Future studies to address the flaws of current evidence are warranted. This review provides important insights regarding adoption of PHIs and their cost-effectiveness which would be useful to inform policy decisions in response to COVID-19 and future pandemics. © 2022, HH Publisher. All rights reserved.

THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION POLICIES ON LOCALS' MOBILITY PATTERNS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2020

OBJECTIVE The prevalence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can cause inconvenience and affect lifestyle because human movements can spread virus transmission. This study aims to investigate the impact of the government's public health intervention policies and reported COVID-19 cases on locals' mobility patterns. DESIGN Secondary data on various mobility patterns of Hong Kong people against public health intervention policies and reported COVID-19 cases were collected and analyzed from publicly available sources, including government, commercial, and news sites. Data were collected from January to July 2020. Multiple regression was applied for hypothesis testing. RESULTS Results showed positive and negative impacts of public health intervention policies and reported COVID-19 cases on locals' mobility patterns. The policy of wearing facial masks negatively influenced locals' mobility patterns. Then, the policy of closure of leisure and cultural service venues increases locals' mobility for retail, groceries, and transit. Moreover, the policy limiting social gatherings to 50 people enhanced locals' mobilities for retail and transit. From another aspect, the reported COVID-19 cases had a negative impact on locals' mobility for retail, parks, and transit. CONCLUSION This study presents considerable effects of public health intervention policies. With the restrictions on certain activities or behaviors, locals will transfer to another behavior, which consequently enhances travel mobilities. The reported COVID-19 cases significantly reduced local mobility patterns.

Public Health Interventions to Improve Antimicrobial Resistance Awareness and Behavioural Change Associated with Antimicrobial Use: A Systematic Review Exploring the Use of Social Media

Introduction: Over the years there have been several interventions targeted at the public to increase their knowledge and awareness about Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). In this work, we updated a previously published review by Price et al. (2018), on effectiveness of interventions to improve the public’s antimicrobial resistance awareness and behaviours associated with prudent use of antimicrobials to identify which interventions work best in influencing public behaviour. Methods: Five databases—Medline (OVID), CINAHL (EBSCO), Embase, PsycINFO, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL-OVID)—were searched for AMR interventions between 2017 and 2021 targeting the public. All studies which had a before and after assessment of the intervention were considered for inclusion. Results: In total, 17 studies were found to be eligible for inclusion in the review. Since there was a variety in the study interventions and in particular outcomes, a narrative synthesis approach was adopted for analysis. Whereas each study showed some impact on awareness and knowledge, none measured long-term impact on behaviours towards antibiotic use, awareness, or knowledge. Engagement was higher in interventions which included interactive elements such as games or videos. Social media was not used for recruitment of participants or as a mode of communication in any AMR interventions included in this review.

Dosing interval strategies for two-dose COVID-19 vaccination in 13 middle-income countries of Europe: Health impact modelling and benefit-risk analysis.

Background: In settings where the COVID-19 vaccine supply is constrained, extending the intervals between the first and second doses of the COVID-19 vaccine may allow more people receive their first doses earlier. Our aim is to estimate the health impact of COVID-19 vaccination alongside benefit-risk assessment of different dosing intervals in 13 middle-income countries (MICs) of Europe. Methods: We fitted a dynamic transmission model to country-level daily reported COVID-19 mortality in 13 MICs in Europe (Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Georgia, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation, Serbia, North Macedonia, Turkey, and Ukraine). A vaccine product with characteristics similar to those of the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 (AZD1222) vaccine was used in the base case scenario and was complemented by sensitivity analyses around efficacies similar to other COVID-19 vaccines. Both fixed dosing intervals at 4, 8, 12, 16, and 20 weeks and dose-specific intervals that prioritise specific doses for certain age groups were tested. Optimal intervals minimise COVID-19 mortality between March 2021 and December 2022. We incorporated the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs) into the model and conducted a benefit-risk assessment to quantify the tradeoff between health benefits versus adverse events following immunisation. Findings: In all countries modelled, optimal strategies are those that prioritise the first doses among older adults (60+ years) or adults (20+ years), which lead to dosing intervals longer than six months. In comparison, a four-week fixed dosing interval may incur 10.1% [range: 4.3% - 19.0%; n = 13 (countries)] more deaths. The rapid waning of the immunity induced by the first dose (i.e. with means ranging 60-120 days as opposed to 360 days in the base case) resulted in shorter optimal dosing intervals of 8-20 weeks. Benefit-risk ratios were the highest for fixed dosing intervals of 8-12 weeks. Interpretation: We infer that longer dosing intervals of over six months could reduce COVID-19 mortality in MICs of Europe. Certain parameters, such as rapid waning of first-dose induced immunity and increased immune escape through the emergence of VOCs, could significantly shorten the optimal dosing intervals. Funding: World Health Organization.

Containing the spread of mumps on college campuses.

College campuses are vulnerable to infectious disease outbreaks, and there is an urgent need to develop better strategies to mitigate their size and duration, particularly as educational institutions around the world adapt to in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Towards addressing this need, we applied a stochastic compartmental model to quantify the impact of university-level responses to contain a mumps outbreak at Harvard University in 2016. We used our model to determine which containment interventions were most effective and study alternative scenarios without and with earlier interventions. This model allows for stochastic variation in small populations, missing or unobserved case data and changes in disease transmission rates post-intervention. The results suggest that control measures implemented by the University's Health Services, including rapid isolation of suspected cases, were very effective at containing the outbreak. Without those measures, the outbreak could have been four times larger. More generally, we conclude that universities should apply (i) diagnostic protocols that address false negatives from molecular tests and (ii) strict quarantine policies to contain the spread of easily transmissible infectious diseases such as mumps among their students. This modelling approach could be applied to data from other outbreaks in college campuses and similar small population settings.

The lived experience of hotel isolation and quarantine at the Aotearoa New Zealand border for COVID-19: A qualitative descriptive study.

Hotel-based Managed Isolation and Quarantine (MIQ) is a key public health intervention in Aotearoa New Zealand's (NZ) COVID-19 border control strategy for returning citizens and permanent residents. We aimed to investigate the experience of transiting through MIQ in NZ, to inform future refinements of this type of system. A qualitative thematic analysis method was utilised to explore experiences in depth with seventy-five individuals who had undergone MIQ in NZ between April 2020 and July 2021. Participants were interviewed by telephone or Zoom or completed an online qualitative questionnaire. Interviews were audio recorded, transcribed and coded; questionnaire responses were sorted and coded. All data were subjected to thematic analysis. Three main themes described the key elements of the participants' experience of MIQ that influenced their overall experiences: 1) The MIQ process, 2) MIQ Hotels, and 3) Individual experience. The variation in participants' overall experience of MIQ was strongly influenced by their perceptions of how well the MIQ process was managed (including communication, flexibility, and compliance with disease prevention and control measures); and the quality of the hotels they were allocated to (in particular hotel staff, meals and information). This valuable insight into the experience of individuals in NZ MIQ hotels can inform better planning, management and implementation of the MIQ process for NZ and adds to the literature of countries utilising such strategies to minimise the transmission of COVID-19, whilst protecting the wellbeing of those using the system.

Quantifying the Effect of Public Activity Intervention Policies on COVID-19 Pandemic Containment Using Epidemiologic Data From 145 Countries.

OBJECTIVES: Most countries have adopted public activity intervention policies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Nevertheless, empirical evidence of the effectiveness of different interventions on the containment of the epidemic was inconsistent. METHODS: We retrieved time-series intervention policy data for 145 countries from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker from December 31, 2019, to July 1, 2020, which included 8 containment and closure policies. We investigated the association of timeliness, stringency, and duration of intervention with cumulative infections per million population on July 1, 2020. We introduced a novel counterfactual estimator to estimate the effects of these interventions on COVID-19 time-varying reproduction number (Rt). RESULTS: There is some evidence that earlier implementation, longer durations, and more strictness of intervention policies at the early but not middle stage were associated with reduced infections of COVID-19. The counterfactual model proved to have controlled for unobserved time-varying confounders and established a valid causal relationship between policy intervention and Rt reduction. The average intervention effect revealed that all interventions significantly decrease Rt after their implementation. Rt decreased by 30% (22%-41%) in 25 to 32 days after policy intervention. Among the 8 interventions, school closing, workplace closing, and public events cancellation demonstrated the strongest and most consistent evidence of associations. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides more reliable evidence of the quantitative effects of policy interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic and suggested that stricter public activity interventions should be implemented at the early stage of the epidemic for improved containment.

A review of epidemiology and public health control measures of COVID-19 variants in Hong Kong, December 2020 to June 2021.

Background: The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) variants posed considerable threats to the global public health. We reviewed the epidemiology of variant cases and control measures implemented in Hong Kong. Methods: The epidemiological characteristics and the temporal trend of the COVID-19 variant cases and local clusters in Hong Kong, and the corresponding public health control measures were reviewed. Results: Between December 2020 and June 2021, 393 variant cases were reported, including 153, 59 and 79 cases of Alpha, Beta and Delta variants with no Gamma variant. The vast majority (378, 96.2%) were imported cases. Since early June 2021, Delta variant had taken over Alpha as the dominant strain. Public health control measures, including risk-stratified quarantine and testing requirements for inbound travellers, banning of flights from extremely high-risk areas, enhanced contact tracing and quarantine, were implemented. Among the 3 clusters involving local transmissions, 2 were linked to imported cases while the source of the remaining one was unknown. Discussion: Amid the global surges of COVID-19 variants, Hong Kong had continued to limit and prevent the occurrence of community-wide outbreak. Ongoing control strategies should be constantly reviewed and adjusted in response to the global and local COVID-19 situation.